12th Five Yr Plan

In: Social Issues

Submitted By ben4jlo
Words 7857
Pages 32
3.1 Financing the Plan with Macroeconomic Balance
Given the grim looking macroeconomic scenario which is further marred by global slowdown, it seems unlikely for India to be able to cut down its fiscal deficit by a whopping 2.2 % as being forecasted. Moreover high inflation, even higher interest rates makes the need for lowering the fiscal deficit even more difficult one to achieve.
Measures taken to curb inflation have not borne fruits till now, and some policy implementation is required in this direction. The target figure of fiscal deficit is 4.6 % during 2011-12. It is further targeted to reach 4.1% and 3.5% in FY13 and FY14 respectively. These estimates are majorly based upon two factors * An optimistic growth in tax Revenues * A substantial decline in the subsidy expenditure.
We would analyze the feasibility of the aforementioned assumptions and would argue the difficulties that lie ahead in the realization of the two factors. GOI has assumed a growth in tax collections of 18% with a real economic growth of 9%, which seems highly optimistic given the poor implementation of tax reforms and seemingly unstable global macroeconomic environment.
Budget at a Glance Rs. Bn | 2009-2010 A | 2010-2011 BE | 2010-2011 RE | 2011-2012 BE | 1. Revenue Receipts | 5,728 | 6,822 | 7,838 | 7,899 | 2. Tax Revenue (net to Centre) | 4,565 | 5,341 | 5,637 | 6,645 | 3. Non-tax Revenue | 1,163 | 1,481 | 2,201 | 1,254 | 4. Capital Receipts $ | 4,517 | 4,265 | 4,327 | 4,678 | 8. Total Receipts $ | 10,245 | 11,087 | 12,166 | 12,577 | 9. Non-plan Expenditure | 7,211 | 7,357 | 8,216 | 8,162 | 13. Plan Expenditure | 3,034 | 3,731 | 3,950 | 4,415 | 16. Total Expenditure | 10,245 | 11,087 | 12,166 | 12,577 | 17. Revenue Expenditure | 9,118 | 9,587 | 10,537 | 10,972 | 18. Capital Expenditure | 1,127 | 1,500 | 1,629 | 1,606 | 19.…...

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