Logistics Real Estate in China

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【国内物流地产市场现状(沙龙选编)】
[pic]
文/安邦集团信息总部 世邦魏理仕
整理/物流沙龙
物流地产为何再次升温?
可以很明显地感受到,近来物流地产再次升温了。5月中旬,国内最大的房地产开发公司万科宣布跨入物流地产。5月29日,荷兰最大的养老金基金资产管理公司荷兰汇盈资产管理公司和中国的仓储开发和运营公司易商联合宣布,荷兰汇盈将向易商投资不超过6.5亿美元,获得易商约20%的股权,并和易商共同组建一家合资公司,在全国范围内开发、持有并运营标准化、现代化的物流地产。事实上,根据公开信息整理的数据显示,2013年5月至今,各路资金已经在物流地产上投入了超过250亿人民币:包括2013年菜鸟网络投资50亿人民币,2013年7月,嘉民集团增资5亿美元;2013年8月,凯雷投资、The Townsend Group联合投资上海宇培达2亿美元;2013年12月,阿里巴巴投资28.22亿元港币(其中18.57亿港币投向海尔电器旗下日日顺物流)于海尔集团;今年2月,国内某保险公司、中银集团投资有限公司联合HOPU基金投了23.5亿美元给普洛斯中国。普洛斯集团首席执行官梅志明表示,公司预计将在两年左右的时间里使用上述投资资金继续在中国扩张。
国内的物流地产为何再次升温?在安邦(ANBOUND)研究员看来,可以从以下几个角度分析:
首先,从需求端来看,国内对现代化的仓储设施需求旺盛。目前,在技术的进步、经济的发展、市场需求的变化等多种因素影响下,国内的产业链环境正在发生着巨大的变化。尤其是在流通领域,互联网的应用正在迅速地重塑流通渠道。电商的快速发展不仅在冲击着传统零售业,也同时对物流提出了新的要求。电商物流的快速响应、小批量、多频次的需求特性,使之其对现代化的仓储设施有着巨大的需求。
其次,从供给端来看,国内现代化的仓储设施供应严重不足。据中国仓储协会估算,截至2012年年底,全国营业性通用仓库总体量达6.98亿平方米。但世邦魏理仕的统计显示,截至2013年年底,由12家主要的全国性物流专业开发商开发的高标准仓储设施存量累计仅约1300万平方米,占全国仓储设施总面积的比例甚微。这显然难以满足以电商为主导的零售行业高速发展所产生的需求。不仅如此,其上游环节——土地的供应更是稀缺。统计显示,2013年,全年全国国有建设用地供应总量73万公顷,比上年增长5.8%。其中,工矿仓储用地21万公顷,增长3.2%,低于国有建设用地供应增长幅度。而由于物流用地对地方财政的贡献度低,物流用地所占比重更是下滑明显。以上海为例,据世邦魏理仕统计,上海2013年全年物流用地出让仅5宗成交,土地总面积不足30公顷。2011-2013年的三年间,上海物流仓储用地出让面积分别为60万、40万和27万平方米,仅占工业用地出让面积的3%左右。[pic]
第三,严重的供不应求现状使得物流地产具备了良好的投资回报。数据显示,由于物流地产需求强劲,全国整体优质仓储物业的平均租金已连续18个季度上涨,目前物流地产的净租赁回报率约为5%-6%,远高于商业地产约3%的平均回报水平。如果再加上因仓储土地供应稀缺所导致的土地增值部分,投资回报将会更高。[pic]
第四,住宅地产行业形势的变化导致传统房地产开发商谋求多元化发展。目前,国内的房地产行业陷入疲软状态,市场上开始弥漫着一股悲凉气氛。国家统计局6月3日发布数据显示,5月中国非制造业商务活动指数为55.5%,比上月上升0.7个百分点,高于荣枯线5.5个百分点,创近6个月新高。然而房地产行业总体偏冷,商务活动指数和新订单指数均在50%以下,价格指数微幅回落。另从土地市场也可见一斑。5月份以来,土地市场流拍严重。截至18日,北上广深合计土地出让金仅为150亿元,这一出让情况创最近数月最低。20大标杆房企在前4个月的拿地规模也以每月下滑近40%的速度缩减。在地价方面,4月统计数据显示,一线城市地价停止上涨、二线城市地价开始下跌。房地产行业整体发展形势的变化促使部分住宅地产开发企业谋求多元化的发展,以应对行业风险。虽然说物流地产的投资回报远比不上住宅地产,且经营更为复杂困难,但是一旦整个市场发生逆转,现有的投资回报不可能持续,届时物流地产依然不失为一个较好的投资领域。而富有远见的传统地产开发商为了在物流地产市场上取得一席之地亦需要提前布局。…...

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